The much maligned nick clegg is right in his protestations that there is no magic bullet to create economic growth in uk plc. Clichés they may be, but there is usually some truth at their heart: selling out the next generation is the ultimate short termism he says, politicians can fall prey to the myth that somewhere there is a lever they can pull to generate growth and that they should simply pull as many as possible in the hope of finding it. His prescription of moving away from dependence on debt-financed growth (excruciatingly painful if actually done), investing in real infrastructure and in knowledge, skills and education and attempting, to the degree possible, to diversify sources of growth, is…

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As manchester often does, we have embraced a government initiative with gusto where it broadly aligns with what we wanted anyway, so why not get some extra kudos ? So it is with the not-really-replacements for the behemoths that were england’s “regional development agencies”, our newly-minted local enterprise partnership. We’re now officially looking for 13 leaders to pull us all together and drive us all forward; an interesting job, perhaps. You’ll need to read the small print to know what the lep will actually do; or rather to be on it, as the intention is very much to have big people with minds of their own who can think innovative thoughts in this highly-restrictive climate, and take the rest of…

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They’re not quite falling like ninepins, but there’s a strong whiff of 1989 in the air as the tunisian government sort of goes, they march in yemen, the momentum to get rid of egypt’s president and indeed whole regime becomes unstoppable, the lebanese government collapses (again), and in a pre-emptive strike jordan’s gentle despot sacks his whole government. The arab exception to the onward march of democracy over the last decades, and the west’s acquiescence in it (as it delivered stability and a degree of support for israel) has long been debated, but no-one saw this potential headlong rush towards toppling dictators and letting freedom ring. A big question for many, including israel’s prime minister, is whether the result of…

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Major shock, apparently, this week, that uk growth at the end of last year was only minus 0.5%, meaning it actually shrunk; another of those and we’re back in recession. Suddenly of course, everyone seems to have predicted it, but actually it’s much more drastic much quicker than anyone forecast. This is not unconnected to inflation, the figures released a few days before being not that much less of a shocker themselves, and yet again way above bank of england predictions. They have now missed the 2% target 55 of the last 66 months. There is a point at which the longevity of this means that inflation expectations rising becomes a given and any concept of it being a “temporary…

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In london last week to meet everyone’s favour minister, eric pickles, the man fronting the local government cuts, as well as greg clarke, minister for “decentralisation”. The uk is chronically centralised and so this is a timely job, but not an easy one. Whilst this ministerial brace have backed the setting up of vague local enterprise partnerships (I was there as part of a representative sample), actually transferring any sort of powers away from whitehall (mainly meaning other departments, like business, skills, employment) to local areas, even where, like manchester, the strongest foundations are already in place, is a difficult mission, but one, with all the localism rhetoric, that cities have a right to push hard on. What does success…

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Some proof, perhaps, of what I have long suspected: that although instincts and the governor of the bank of england suggest that the purveyors of the biggest cuts in public expenditure in the uk this side of the battle of hastings are likely to be out of power after all this for a generation; instincts and the governor may be wrong. Alesina, carloni and lecce, nicely summarised in the economist studied the ten harshest periods of cuts in western, i.e. oecd, countries and the elections that followed them within 2 years. 37% saw a change of government - compared to an all-period average of 40%; statistically insignificant. This also works for the harshest 60 cuts periods. As interestingly, there…

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Back, as usual in the new year, from a brief spell in hungary. Word association around europe is not the country’s eu presidency, which began 1 january, but the new “draconian” media law. Despite the coverage, by hardly an uninterested party (or abroad at least, a particularly well-informed one), I’m not sure it’s really the return of stalin, but seems certainly another chapter in the sad and long, long running saga of new hungarian government, new party posts at every state level. More unusual are a couple of novel fiscal measures. Most controversial is a new tax imposed on foreign investors, which companies such as e.on, deutsche telekom, allianz, ing bank, axa and omv have all bitterly and publicly blanched…

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As bombs are man-made and we’re terribly used to them, and with dozens not thousands dead, I doubt the pakistan blast will define this year’s christmas day as the tsunami did boxing day a few years ago. Nuclear-armed pakistan though is a critical place in the world today. I well recall a friend who served some un-time there likening it to cold war berlin: a fault line of the geopolitical world where any spy worth their salt could do business. Whilst the most unstable nuclear state award undoubtedly goes to north korea, its range and arsenal are limited. Pakistan by contrast is a crossroads for many of the world’s conflicts, and a player in its own right. It’s also hugely…

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Few worlds are worse than british health for throwing up their own impenetrable lexicons and structures, but two years after being appointed (bottom of page) to the board of a hospital, I have just about learnt the difference between a pct, sha, pbc and pbr. Just as a new government has decided to scrap them all. Hospital of course is a simplification – I’m actually on the board of a healthcare trust, or acute provider, which manages 3 hospitals (one is altrincham, in a terrible state, which we’ve spend huge efforts to convince our funders to let us rebuild), the main one of which, trafford general, is whose doors the first patient of the much-fabled national health service walked through.…

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