1 february 2011, there’s no wall in cairo, but...

Tuesday 1st February 2011

They’re not quite falling like ninepins, but there’s a strong whiff of 1989 in the air as the tunisian government sort of goes, they march in yemen, the momentum to get rid of egypt’s president and indeed whole regime becomes unstoppable, the lebanese government collapses (again), and in a pre-emptive strike jordan’s gentle despot sacks his whole government. The arab exception to the onward march of democracy over the last decades, and the west’s acquiescence in it (as it delivered stability and a degree of support for israel) has long been debated, but no-one saw this potential headlong rush towards toppling dictators and letting freedom ring. A big question for many, including israel’s prime minister, is whether the result of all this will be “fundamentalist” islamic regimes in a “one person, one vote, one time” scenario. His likening a possible outcome to iran is short-sightedness and scaremongering of the worst kind, that ha’aretz, a very reliable source of israeli news, correctly called him on. How illustrative that israel has taken its place amongst the status quo of the middle east, and left so far behind its idealism, its aspirations and its pride as a light unto the nations. Even the EU has done better, calling for an "orderly transition... to a genuine process of substantial democratic reform ... paving the way for free and fair elections", which I put down as a small victory for lisbon (time for europe). Though hardly as exciting as the politics, the greatest fears should perhaps be economic. As the ever excellent nouriel roubini points out, 3 of the past 5 global recessions were sparked by geopolitical shock in the middle east that led to a spike in oil prices. Yet another reason to fear that stagflation may be stalking our economic future.