Blog
18 march 2016, germany’s ukip
Friday 18th March 2016
Although they have just one seat from the last general election, the united kingdom independence party is a massive success, getting 13% of the vote and having won outright the european elections. Much more importantly, they have shifted the country’s political landscape. There is no doubt that without the party started in 1993 by a few professors to stop britain joining the euro, we would not now be having a referendum. If the uk does indeed leave, a mighty blow for the eu itself, ukip will have become one of modern history’s most successful political movements. Germany now has its own ukip. The alternative fur deutschland, afd, has quickly accelerated along the same path from anti-euro, to anti-eu, to anti-migrant,…
12 march 2016, knowing the price but not the valeu
Saturday 12th March 2016
Still stuck in referendum world. A particular bugbear is the “leave” camp’s claim that britons “give” £20b a year to the eu; £50m a day. Firstly that’s wrong, as almost £10b comes right back, in cash for projects like manchester’s metrolink and royal eye hospital, promoting tourism to the lake district and a large number of schemes for and investments in small and more risky businesses outside london that would not otherwise receive funding. That means there is a not a single uk-wide picture, as while london is a strong “net contributor” to the eu, wales is a net beneficiary, ie better off in cash terms in than out, as are many other areas. That though is not the story,…
26 february 2016, how britain’s next prime-minister was selected
Friday 26th February 2016
In the heat of battle it is difficult to see what tactics are being deployed to what ends and also what the ultimate outcome will be. Whilst they lost the vote, the scottish nationalists clearly won last year’s scottish independence referendum, rising from just 6 members of parliament before, to an all-conquering 50 after. Last weekend’s intervention in the eu referendum campaign by boris might not have swung that result, but chances are it swung the one afterwards: for the conservative party leadership. Dwell on two facts. First, whatever happens in june, david cameron has already categorically said he will resign before the next uk general election. That could be soon and abrupt, or could be triumphant and some years…
21 february 2016, in or out ?
Sunday 21st February 2016
Despite so much political capital being wasted on so little substance, let’s not even pause on the entrails of a piffling deal, but look instead at the question on the ballot. The die seems already cast, with brits set to wake up on 24 june amazed that they’ve just voted to leave history’s strongest ever democratic pooling of sovereignty (see 1 january 2016, the year of leaving). Why should we have stayed ? The union is not perfect, but europe together is very much better off than it would have been without it, as, selfishly, is the uk. Britain joined as the sick man of europe but leaves as a star economic performer of sorts, hard to square with the…
18 february 2016, it was; were you ?
Thursday 18th February 2016
Travelling back from major family event in london last weekend, I paused at whsmith, reflecting on the non-momentous news that in a few weeks one of its more interesting titles, the independent, will no longer grace its shelves. Like bbc3, the rather newer tv station that went off air yesterday, the indy has gone “online only”. Surely, say the critics, the latest but not the last to stop having forests felled so we can leave them on train seats after a brief peruse. Actually, time was when I would read the paper practically from cover the cover, back of course when time was less of a premium; I was a student for a long time. The independent was my first…
3 february 2016, super mario
Wednesday 3rd February 2016
No, not that one - but the next president of the united states, or at least republican nominee. Strange as it may seem to crown the fifth-placed senator the victor (coming in with 23% behind Clinton, sanders, trump & cruz in the iowa caucuses), the republican battle has so far all been about who will emerge as the challenger candidate (trump or cruz) and who as the establishment’s, with the latter heavy favourite to win. That’s what marco rubio won last night. Though tea-party propelled (see 24 october 2011, no deleveraging at home), he sports the backstory shield of an hispanic obama; though no liberal, he works quite hard to remain in the arena of reasonableness. Though I am hilary…
30 january 2016, windows zen - not
Saturday 30th January 2016
I have always regarded computers, like cars, as just a way of getting from a to b, or more ambitiously, to z. I neither know nor care what goes on under the bonnet; I call my mechanic, or son. However, so frequent have our help moments become, forced as we are to load ever cleverer applications on to the old dear, that we have finally faced up to the need to change our antique dell desktop, #disposableworld. After due deliberation, and despite loving my i-phone, we ignored the siren voices both of going apple (how much did you say again) and of converting to a laptop (you’re so old-fashioned dad) and went like-for-like, of course with upgraded speed, memory…
12 january 2016, when nothing goes right, go left
Wednesday 13th January 2016
It wasn’t supposed to be this way. When the financial “excesses of untrammeled capitalism” crisis almost brought the house down in 2008, europe’s left seemed the obvious inheritors. Yet, since then it is the centre-right that has reinforced its credo and made the most credible job of picking up the pieces. Though in power in france, the left is the most unpopular (and erratic) government ever; in germany its counterpart is a weak supporting act. In country after country – spain being the latest – the left has lost. The “greek effect”, where a far-left splinter gains momentum (as seen in spain and now internally with the death of britain’s labour party) only makes it worse. Yet these leftists are…
1 january 2016, the year of leaving
Saturday 2nd January 2016
When the question has been put to more pro-european populations in easier times, the french, dutch and irish amongst them, the answer has been “no”. So why does anyone expect something different from the far more half-hearted brits ? Don’t look at the "outs" split and disorderly campaign, look at the message, clear and bright. That’s why the uk is set to leave, the biggest backwards step for the eu since its foundation in 1957. Rages against the establishment, driven by those on the wrong end of globalisation, inequalities and empowerment, continue to sweep across the western world, the snp destroying labour in scotland, the national front coming first in french elections and donald trump raging to contendership for the…
16 december 2015, what goes down, must come up
Wednesday 16th December 2015
So, finally, after almost a decade, us interest rates have risen, ending a period unprecedented in the history of monetary policy since such a thing began with the creation of the bank of england in 1694. Though rates remain on the floor in london and frankfurt, the inevitable upward march (yes, even eventually in euroland) has begun. So what ? Inflation, on both sides of the atlantic, remains extremely low (the “usual” trigger for rate rises) and the jobs market, even in the us, is far from robust, much less so in europe and in both cases (as shown by stagnant wages) flattered by the growth of low-grade and flexible positions. There is a strong argument that this extraordinary period…
12 december 2015, trumped
Saturday 12th December 2015
Cycling home listening to the ever-excellent pm programme (on i-player of course), I found myself, possibly for the first time ever, agreeing with the visceral mep dan hannan, who brought a semblance of sense to a hysterical debate on donald trump’s latest outburst by pointing out that banning him from entering the uk for his calls to ban muslims from entering america was a somewhat ridiculous bending to the inevitable “something must be done” feeling. Alas, everyone is talking about trump (and into that trap I fall), which proves yet again that there’s no such thing as bad publicity, and few are better at it than “the don”. Happily, he has no chance of actually becoming president: the excellent nate…
3 december 2016, the other hilary
Thursday 3rd December 2015
From the leadership vacuum that is today’s british labour party, step forward hilary benn, after a stonking speech in yesterday’s totemic debate about whether or not to extend british bombing of islamic state into syria. Joining 60-odd other labour members to support the government, against his leader and the rest of the party, benn established himself overnight as the principled, strong orator, independent-minded bulwark from within against jeremy corbyn, should the party ever want such a thing. With a combination of this year’s general election and the subsequent party leadership contest taking out a whole generation of post-corbyn potentials, it was inevitable that one of the next crop would establish themselves alongside the refuseniks of chuka umunna and tristram hunt…