Blog
20 december 2009, G2 is with us
Tuesday 5th January 2010
Along with every European think tank worth its salt, I’ve been warning for a long while that europe’s satisfaction with being a political dwarf will mean a world run by the usa and china – the G2. The no hopenhagen result shows that the waiting is over. The countries that did the late night deal were the us, china, india, brazil and south Africa - and the latter ones quickly disowned it. From start to finish, going back a year, this was a us-china dialogue. Forget the brown/miliband “it was us wot won it” claim, the uk, france, germany and russia were not even at the top table, despite on the face of it the eu having the strongest hand,…
19 december 2009, late for the party
Tuesday 5th January 2010
My half-decent reason for missing the secret santa intro to the office party was being in at the creation for the signing of the declaration of independence of the republic of manchester. OK, it wasn’t quite the ending of the british mandate or the treaty of rome, but all manchester’s ten democratically-elected leaders turned up in bury and signed on the dotted line with a delighted looking minister, keeping us just about on track to become the uk’s only statutory city region before the election. Not that the vote should slow progress, as the official opposition are as noisy about localism as the government. I’ve quickly googled it now, and am amazed at the coverage and commentary. From signatures to…
13 december 2009, on your bike
Sunday 13th December 2009
Yes, transport again, and yes, inspired by an email (from beyond green) - though I cycled to work for years, and still now bike daily to and from the train station. Cycling won’t just reduce carbon emissions, it will keep us fitter and healthier, encourage us to use local shops and amenities, help make streets social centres again and communities spatially closer, and reduce congestion big time. Yes it rains, as it does in amsterdam and copenhagen, where 55% of commuter journeys are now made by bike. That’s five, five per cent. Most. How do we get there ? Secondly, we need major investment in cycle lanes, to reduce car lanes and city centre parking and our old friend invest…
2 december 2009, why can’t we do transport ?!?!?!
Wednesday 2nd December 2009
My trip home today. I arrived at the station in good time for the 18.55 on one of manchester’s supposedly best lines, to the airport. It arrived its reliably usual 5 minutes late. I got on. We waited. Ten minutes later it was announced there was no driver. A further 15 minutes later it was announced that the train was cancelled. I take the next train to piccadilly, supposedly the city’s jewel in the crown railway station. The 1970s screen on platform 13 is not working, so I traipse to the main concourse to find out the next train – the 19.37. A few minutes before it is due to depart, it is cancelled. There is a slow 19.46 to…
1 december, better pEUnrose
Wednesday 2nd December 2009
Met john penrose mp today, shadow minister for business, enterprise & regulatory reform; part of ken clarke’s team. Very happy to say that some of ken’s “europe does good stuff too” attitude has clearly penetrated. John was talking about the thrillingly titled “regulation in the post-bureaucratic age: how to get rid of red tape and reform quangos", and I am happy to report that its prescriptions are largely lifted straight out of the eu’s better regulation efforts of the past years, which, on the whole, are "a good thing". In my attached eu briefing you can read all about sunset clauses, impact assessments and more consistent application – and then you can read all about it again in “RIP bureaucratic…
22 november 2009, inflation fears are really not exaggerated
Sunday 22nd November 2009
Regular readers will know that for a long time I have been warning that it is not deflation, but inflation that should be our great worry, and that the temptation to inflate away our mountainous debt is highly likely to become irresistible. I am not alone. Inflation this month hit 1.5% (CPI, click here for an explanation as to why this is the right measure), which is some way from what the bank of england were predicting earlier this year, just 0.6%. That’s quite a massive gap. The action they took on that basis – quantative easing – is also massive, yet has not stopped, even as inflation has continued its upward trajectory. This gradual rise can be considered highly…
21 november 2009, what to say of ashton & humpty rumpty
Saturday 21st November 2009
Like the removal of a champagne cork from a bottle, there has been a flood of commentary on our two new eu supremos, the consensus being its rather flat and non-vintage champagne; more bubbly whine really. I thought michael white got it about right when he said that he too sometimes feels like putting his feet up and so why “after a turbulent 500 centuries of global dominance and two world wars” shouldn’t the eu. Someone else said that it was like the leaders looked at the posts they had created, and stepped back. However, the bottom line is more prosaic, and it is that no decision on the president was going to be made without merkel, and merkel is…
19 november 2009, if only...
Thursday 19th November 2009
I am “working from home” – and if I can do done today what I wanted to do yesterday I'll be free tomorrow. It’s hard not to sneer cynicism when I hear people are “working” from home, and indeed I actively discourage my own staff from it, as firstly I think both individuals and the business need a critical mass of people in one place bouncing off each other and driving each other forward, and secondly can you really produce as much in your own comfy isolated space, between breakfast, lunch, chores etc, as you do speeding through a work day ? You’re also burning a whole lot of individual lights and electricity rather than having thousands working from one…
14 november 2009, real reform
Saturday 14th November 2009
I was on a stage when gordon brown became pm, and in an impromptu reply told the audience I thought that just like on day 1 as chancellor he’d made the bank of England independent, on day 1 as pm he’d announce electoral reform. In my mind was a powerful speech I’d heard by someone from charter 88 just before labour came to power, which ran the figures of all 20th century elections and showed that despite the conservatives being utterly dominant, in every single election a majority of voters had always voted for the two “progressive” parties. Therefore, all labour needed was one big win and and to bring in proportional representation, and there'd never be a conservative government…
13 november 2009, it was ten years ago today
Friday 13th November 2009
I was just reminded by an email that ten years ago tonight I held a great party in the very decent little flat I had above barclays bank in east finchley. There was loud music, queues down the stairs, people from different worlds and merriment of all sorts deep into the night. The sender, a good friend, remembers this well as he met a wonderful woman there, and after several trials and tribulations went on to marry her, and have a beautiful family. That’s not all – my flatmate and cohost also got a snog that night, and went on to marry her too. I was about to write that I don’t hold parties any more, but it occurs to…
7 november 2009, interest rates going up
Saturday 7th November 2009
As predicted (6 september), the ecb has begun to position itself to raise interest rates, although as we’re now beyond rate cuts (let’s call it quantative easing, though that’s not quite what the ecb did) they first need to get back to “Go”. Hence trichet’s statement this week that “enhanced credit support” is “not for eternity” and his strong hint that december’s round of extraordinary one year injections will be the last. Norway and Australia are already off the blocks. Not all though can follow so boldly. As trichet also indicated, this necessary monetary tightening cannot stabilise the economy and avoid inflation without what he calls an ambitious fiscal exit strategy. In plain English, that means higher taxes and deep,…
5 november 2009, remember, remember, gunpowder, liam and trot
Thursday 5th November 2009
Good day today, of fireworks throughout, in a good sense. Was both our bimonthly Board, and also our biweekly senior management team – so pretty intense. As if that wasn’t enough, started with an early morning meet with liam byrne, alistair darling’s number 2 at the treasury, and master of the manchester city region process. He’s a good guy, generally impressive, with a good high-level gravitas and grasp, but equally at home with details and real things. He runs the show effortlessly but subtly, and listens; quickly jumping on things he’s interested in, and moving forward the discussion. One to watch.