Blog
8 may 2010, ignore now, pay later; later has arrived
Saturday 8th May 2010
The lessons of most events are often known long before, but never acted on. So it is with greece, the lesson being that monetary union without deeper fiscal co-ordination is ultimately unsustainable. This doesn’t mean that the euro area is going to collapse, but rather that you cannot avoid closer co-operation on the fiscal side – meaning tax and spend. Will the new euro area “peer review” of budgets be a significant step in that direction ? Unlikely: although this in-house “imf article 4” mechanism may be valuable, it won't be enforceable and the commission already does something similar. The real action being taken is more of a “euro area v. the markets” type, with ideas for an eu rating…
3 may 2010, not so green shoots
Saturday 8th May 2010
I have a wonderful thing: a garden. A househunting must-have, deluded as we still were that about the manchester climate that these wonderful green spaces are calm, healthy bits of verdant nature on your doorstep. I also have a problem: a garden. It’s not that I’m lazy or incapable of planting some potatoes and mowing the lawn (though that may be true), it’s that I don’t particularly enjoy it, and it’s not what I choose to do with my precious time. Three gardeners have passed by, but all say the same thing: back-to-back, mate, can’t take on any more work. This leaves me with two contradictory thoughts. Firstly, why aren’t these guys upping their rates (as the demand is there)…
1 may 2010, workers of the...
Saturday 1st May 2010
My understanding of today reflects my life progress. At first, through a happy upbringing in manchester, it was meaningless, the first monday in may being an unexceptional, and pragmatic, bank holiday. In oxford, I discovered may morning, when students jump drunk into the river and party towards a champagne breakfast at 6am, when a full-on church choir lets rip at 6am, followed by morris dancing and other such distinctly southern english things I was never exposed to (and never actually saw, as students traditionally go to bed, with each other, at that time). It is a delight of localism, hedonism, crass class and tradition. Venturing abroad, I discovered that 1 may for most is a fiercely socialist (red) day, and…
28 april 2010, greek tragedy
Wednesday 28th April 2010
Since 13 february, things have moved on, but not all that much. Sovereign debt is the new bank crisis, with the risk being they fall like dominos. This is not the last run we will see; britons especially should beware. For now though, the market’s herding instincts are rounding on greece, where they should be, and portugal and spain, tenuously linked through the euro, where they shouldn’t. For the latter countries, the onus is on them to introduce tight measures of the sort ireland did in good time. For greece, it is much too late. The euro has slipped, but the currency markets have not reacted much, and greece’s plight would be infinitely worse without that protection. It would by…
24 april 2010, I agree with vince !
Saturday 24th April 2010
Whilst I’m not sure vince cable is quite the soothsayer claimed, he’s right to finger the risk of a so-called “double-dip recession”. All the risks to recovery are on the downside, and latest figures – rising inflation, rising unemployment, anaemic growth, lower trend growth – all point to longer term effects and a fragile economy still dependent on the crutches of massive and unsustainable public sector spend. The big question was always will we have lift off by the time the crutches go; the big question now is when the crutches will go. For all the bitter debate, that will not be at a time of government choosing. The global capital behind the bond market supplying us with endless cash…
18 april 2010, elinor, naked
Sunday 18th April 2010
I’m reading “juliet, naked”, spurred on by a book club an enterprising soulster has started at work. Not too long ago I would have wretched at such a notion, but I used to devour fiction, and it’s now been all but squeezed out of regularity, so I’m delighted to have it boxed back. I’m a third in, and its rather paul auster-esque - probably my best ficticious discovery of the last decade, brought to me by my other half (the book of illusions is my favourite). Bori, meanwhile, is knee-deep in her photography studies, and working on a piece about elinor carucci. The book (so far) hinges around someone sending an email to someone famous, and what transpires. Remarkably, last…
17 april 2010, a glorious, glorious day
Saturday 17th April 2010
The sun just makes everything better – and today is marvellous. Been in buxton. Left my other half working on her photographs and took kids first on some errands (with a match attax album solving so many problems) and then a glorious drive through the peaks to its capital, and then long hours lolling around one of our favourite parks, replete with miniature train, adventure playground, trampolines, decent cafe, endless paths to bike on and lashings and lashings of glorious sunshine. Manchester united pipped city in the last seconds to breath life into a very exciting title race, and – the double whammy – motivate tottenham who are beating chelsea as I write. When I turn on my phone, it…
14 april 2010, what part of "never" don't I understand ?
Wednesday 14th April 2010
With a majority conservative government still the most likely outcome of the british general election next month, their manifesto is worth a second look on europe. On the euro it seems clear: the party will “never take the UK into the euro”. I’ll be asking ken clarke about that next week. Manifesto commitments though come and go, not least with milton keynes’ dictum, “when the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? ...”. It bears out a consistent vision of staying in the eu, but one that looks much more like the (much less binding association of states) eea. Much of what the party aspires to is simply not do-able, as all other members states…
13 april 2010, emotional intelligence
Wednesday 14th April 2010
At a daniel goleman “masterclass” today, which is a posh way of saying lecture series. His book though, “emotional intelligence” is revelatory, and shows your natural instinct, at home and at work, of “fight or flight” when faced with difficult situations. Conquering, controlling and positively channeling this emotion is as important as iq for getting on in life. Ok, this may sound like management crap, but it touched a real nerve with me, the more so hearing daniel in the flesh. We can all be “emotionally hijacked” and learning to control that impulse can make many situations much better. The main point of the day was leadership and finding the sweet spot between boredom and stress, leading not following, but…
12 april 2010, hungarian elections
Tuesday 13th April 2010
As expected fidesz, the centre right, won hands down and should now form a strong government, not that they will be in a position to do much different from the previous leftist government, which was forced by the dire economic situation to dispense bitter medicine prescribed by the imf. The treatment is working though, and vickor orban, the new prime minister ought to gradually benefit if he keeps a steady ship. To his far right now is “jobbik”, a truly horrendous paramilitary nationalist outfit, which won 16% of the vote, although less than many had expected. Orban’s flirtations with the street must take some of the blame for this (see the perfect storm). With 7%, the voice of sanity is…
31 march 2010, complaining at birdsong
Wednesday 31st March 2010
Another step today on the road to manchester becoming a first-in-the-nation “combined authority”, essentially (anoraks on !) its ten local councils moving their intensive collaboration into a much stronger statutory framework. Good little video on the city in the guardian, with a former resident of a very run down area (hulme) complaining that in this awful “new” environment you can hear birdsong rather than the neighbours’ sex pistols at full blast. It’s a case of my totally disagreeing with everything said, but being happy to defend his right to say it. Give me clean and creative over mouldy and momentous any day of the millennium.
30 march 2010, bad banks
Wednesday 31st March 2010
A national elderly care scheme was dismissed today as its cost, some 2 billion pounds, was far too much for the public purse to bear. I am sure that many people had a sharp intake of breath at this, given the more than 800 billion spent “saving” the banks, in the uk alone. Somehow, huge profits after the seminal events of 2008/9 just aren’t the same as before. Surely a rubicon was crossed – or at least it should have been. Somehow though, the current framework of capital’s critical mass, buttressed by our perceptions of globalisation and our very real need for that same capital from those same gatekeepers has meant that we have not, in any way, forced anyone…