Given that the european people’s party has won every european election since 1994, it's highly likely that whoever emerges as candidate from their congress in helsinki on 8 november will go on to become the next commission president, which, whatever anyone says, is still europe’s top job. Home advantage goes to alex stubb. He gets my vote, or would if I had one (I'm not a voting member of the epp or even perhaps by then an eu citizen). I met the marvellous mr stubb (see 10 november 2011, the europeans are coming) back when I was organising seminar sessions at the european central bank and he was a mere mep. Together with then-president jean claude trichet we had a…

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You won’t know where it is, and nor did I until a month ago, but spent last weekend in oman’s second city, salalalalalah as my younger calls it. It was pleasant. Known and quite popular across the gulf region (generally known as the gcc, but rather in abeyance since qatar was isolated), it has made inroads into europe too, with charters filling the rapidly-growing resort about 10 miles outside town. Said younger son mentioned oman to a random taxi driver in manchester who it turned out had been there. Spent most time in older town, which was already empty with schools back and the 3-month “khareef” season over, and so not only all local tourists but half the inhabitants have…

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Russia’s has used “alternative warfare” for years, its most notable victory the little green men’s bloodless invasion of crimea and successful destabilisation of ukraine, stopping modernisation and leaning to europe (and more importantly away from russia) in its tracks (see and the beast goes on, 17 april 2014). Divide and rule and undermining western democratic institutions are now standard russian infowar with its own specialist division (the internet research agency). China is at it too, establishing armed artificial islands in the disputed waters of its self-declared nine-dash line. Economically, from 1991 to 2013, china’s share of global exports rose from 2 to nearly 20%, all but wiping out parts of american manufacturing. Despite chinese investment in military tech, america’s…

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For those that don’t already know, I am living in muscat at the moment, where around half of the population are expats, who walk around in shorts, t-shirts and pretty much whatever. Half are omanis, a traditional people where the men wear a distinctive hat and long white dishdasha and women cover their heads, mainly with an open-face hijab, not-unusually with the full niqab (see we will fight them on the beaches, 27 august 2016). I smile and talk to everyone, every day, whatever they wear. It takes a little cultural recalibration, but is entirely easy. I do recall the first time I saw someone in a niqab, which can be quite a strange and intimating sight to a westerner.…

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It’s been a rolling month of finishing off and goodbyes, as I slowly make my way from manchester to muscat, which if you’re wondering is the capital of oman, which for those wondering is in the gulf and for those wonks wondering (I know many), the gcc. After a gorgeous little holiday with my younger a few weeks ago, I then had a weekend away with the elder, cycling from buxton to matlock, mainly along the monsal trail (collage). This whole period has been incredibly sunny (somewhat taking away from my poor weather excuse for leaving) so the cycling was just wonderful, as well as quite leisurely, with lots of stop offs for coffee & world cup matches. We had…

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A favourite adage I often drop into conversation is that a lie can travel halfway round the world before the truth gets its boots on. Now comes proof, with an mit study of several gazillion tweets, showing conclusively that false stories were retweeted faster, and by more people, than true ones. Fake political news is the most likely to go viral. This is not new (the economist suggests the french revolution was sparked by a false rumour being gossiped), but is certainly supercharged when social-media can literally send a story to billions in moments. The reason, the study concludes, is pretty straightforward: information is not exciting. What encourages effort, including passing things on, is the novel, the exciting, the unusual,…

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What I must admit is now a long time ago, I planned to write a book, which I got about one-third through. I started on my amstrad, but did the most part on a sleek black laptop I bought way ahead of time before I went to budapest, my base for a magical year and a half buzzing around the most incredulous countries of eastern and central europe working with students. Though most of my writing took place (and as it stands now is set in) my next big stop in life (the middle-east being wonderfully conducive to writing), the book is undoubtedly about that time in my european ancestral home. A bit late to the party, I’ve just read…

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Whatever else tries, brexit continues to monopolise uk political oxygen. The december narrative was progress (phase one complete !). In fact, the uk definitively scrapped its earlier (ridiculous) ambition to negotiate a trade treaty before “brexit day” march 2019. With its new (manageable) aim of a vague political declaration, the focus has moved to the so-called transition period. Again, the uk is taking a little time to understand the situation. It has asked if it can have a transition period, enabling it to keep the benefits of being in the single market and the rest until a new trade treaty is agreed and implemented, to which the eu has said yes - as long as all the current arrangements of…

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This week’s charlemagne (my alter ego, see 25 august 2012, eur in or eur out) insightfully bemoaned how despite everyone’s best efforts, brexit risks destroying the northern ireland consensus, because its open border, allowing everyone to be irish or british citizens and range of all-island institutions were steps shrouded in constructive ambiguity. Some questions are best left unanswered concludes the colomnist, which brexit’s hard choices make impossible. After 2 decades of relative peace and tranquillity, our complacency over how things can change for the worse is remarkable, though perhaps not to the people of ukraine, syria or myanmar. Or indeed yugoslavia, who seemed a proud, successful and tolerant society just years before descending into all-out war that killed hundreds of…

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