14 january 2010, brics - more than ever the global economic future

Friday 15th January 2010

Mier reunion today at goldman sachs, with sir tom mckillop, diane coyle, jonathan kestenbaum and goldman’s chief economist, jim o’neill, the man who first coined the term the “brics”, meaning brazil, russia, india and china, countries which he reckoned would account for getting on for 50% of the global economy by 2050. Widely discounted as fantastic back in 2001, this is now accepted wisdom, with a timetable moving rapidly up to 2030. Really, it’s all about china, whose economy is close to creating a new turkey every year, dwarfing india. The bric proposition has strengthened in the recession, as their phenomenal growth – goldmans estimates 11.9% for china for 2010 – closes the gap on an anaemic west ever quicker. As jim stridently says, the brics did not collapse – on the contrary (with the exception of russia), they have thrived. A year ago, everyone was terribly quick to discount the idea of decoupling, ie that the emerging economies could follow a different growth pattern to the west. Now, decoupling really has lift off. Our future is all about coupling our supply to their demand.